The looming shutdown is more than budget drama. It’s a lever that can rewire power inside Washington, stress‑test U.S. governance, and reshape perceptions abroad. We map the catalysts, explain how a shutdown can operate as a deliberate strategy, outline the incentives to keep it going, and connect the dots to our long‑horizon Scenario 4.
Each September, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) offers leaders a stage to present their visions of the global order. In 2025, the most striking image was not a speech, but rows of empty seats. This absence spoke louder than words, symbolising the UN’s fading role and the emergence of a fragmented international system. It
