Commodities Become Weapons in a Multipolar World in 2025
Lithium, copper, gold, and rare earths were once niche products. Now, these commodities have become weapons in a multipolar world, reshaping geopolitics and investment. This aligns directly with our Scenario Outlook (2025–2026) and our Critical Resources & Commodity Leverage thesis.
Commodities as Weapons in a Multipolar World
China dominates refining and mid-stream processing, leaving Western economies exposed. At the same time, the energy transition, defense re-armament, and inflation hedging have boosted demand for metals and minerals. As a result, commodities now act as “security assets” as much as industrial inputs. This trend also reinforces our Global Energy Transition hypothesis, where critical minerals underpin electrification.
The Dual Role for Investors
For investors, this shift means commodities serve a dual role: growth exposure in stable times and protection during crises. Gold illustrates this duality perfectly, acting as both a safe haven and a portfolio hedge, as outlined in our Gold as the Ultimate Hedge thesis. Yet risks remain. Policy interventions, technological substitution, and volatility can reshape markets quickly.
Multipolar Fragmentation
As trade and currency blocs diverge, control over commodities becomes leverage in a fragmented order. Export bans, resource nationalism, and selective supply agreements are increasingly common. This fits with our analysis of Cold War 2.0, where blocs compete not only in technology and defense but also in natural resources. Commodities, therefore, are weapons in both economic and political sense.
Conclusion
Commodities are no longer background inputs. They are strategic assets, weapons in a world of shifting power. For geopolitics, this means resource leverage will define multipolar competition. For investors, it underscores the structural role of commodities in both growth and defense against volatility.
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