Each September, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) offers leaders a stage to present their visions of the global order. In 2025, the most striking image was not a speech, but rows of empty seats. This absence spoke louder than words, symbolising the UN’s fading role and the emergence of a fragmented international system. It also aligns with trends we track in our Scenario Outlook (2025–2026).
A Weakening UN
Several speeches at UNGA 2025 underscored the institution’s decline. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called the UN “weak” and warned of drones and AI fuelling a destructive arms race. Leaders from the Global South demanded reform, arguing that post-1945 structures no longer match today’s balance of power. Meanwhile, Western allies lamented Security Council paralysis, where vetoes block solutions from Ukraine to Gaza.
The empty chambers underline a deeper truth: the UN is losing relevance. This erosion connects directly to our Defense & Tech Autonomy hypothesis, where regional actors increasingly fill security vacuums.
Xi vs. Trump: Competing Narratives
Two addresses highlighted the global divide. Donald Trump dismissed climate change as “the biggest con ever perpetrated on the world.” In contrast, Xi Jinping pledged new emissions targets via video address, doubling down on China’s green transition.
Where Trump ridiculed multilateralism, Xi positioned China as a responsible steward of global public goods. This divergence echoes our Global Energy Transition thesis, in which China leverages climate commitments to claim leadership of the green economy.
What Comes After the UN?
If UN credibility continues to fade, what fills the void? Likely no single successor, but a patchwork system. BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expand memberships and push RMB-based settlement, reinforcing our RMB & Green Yuan Strategy. Regional blocs such as NATO, ASEAN, and the African Union take on more responsibility, while ad hoc coalitions form around food, energy, and technology crises.
As Finland’s President Stubb noted, the “new world order” will not be a single architecture but a fragmented system where legitimacy and capability migrate away from the UN.
Scenario 4: Decline of U.S. Hegemony
The UNGA also illustrated the Decline & Fall of U.S. Hegemony scenario. U.S. disengagement is clear in the dismissal of climate change and skepticism toward multilateralism. China, in contrast, positions itself as a global leader in finance and climate. The Global South pushes harder for equity, resource leverage, and financial alternatives. What remains of the UN is a hollow stage: a platform for speeches, not solutions.
Final Thought
The empty seats at UNGA 2025 are more than optics. They symbolise a world in transition, where legitimacy is slipping away from the institutions built in 1945. The real question is not whether the world order is shifting—but who will shape what comes next.
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