Our six core investment hypotheses frame how investors can navigate structural shifts in geopolitics, technology, and commodities. Together, they offer a roadmap for positioning portfolios in a multipolar world. Each hypothesis connects to long-term dynamics explored in the Scenario Outlook (2025–2026).
Six Core Investment Hypotheses for a Multipolar World
Defense & Tech Autonomy
Europe’s rearmament and industrial policy accelerate. Defense primes and sovereign tech ecosystems expand, with spillovers into robotics and industrial automation. A high-certainty, policy-backed theme anchored by state budgets. See Defense & Tech Autonomy.
China Tech Sovereignty
China builds a parallel technology stack in semiconductors, AI, and infrastructure. State capital and Belt & Road demand sustain this ecosystem behind regulatory firewalls. Access remains primarily via Hong Kong and Stock Connect. See China Tech Sovereignty.
Global Energy Transition
EVs, batteries, and renewable grids drive a decade-long supercycle. Vertically integrated OEMs and power-equipment leaders benefit from scale and policy tailwinds. See Global Energy Transition.
Critical Resources & Commodity Leverage
Lithium, copper, nickel, and rare earths become strategic choke points. Producers outside China, especially in Australia and Canada, command premium valuations. See Critical Resources and the New Commodity Leverage.
Gold as the Ultimate Hedge
Gold remains the neutral safe haven against debt, USD erosion, and geopolitical shocks. Central-bank buying reinforces long-term demand. See Gold as the Ultimate Hedge.
RMB & Green Yuan Energy Strategy
China leverages renewables dominance to push RMB settlement in trade and energy flows. Over time, this elevates yuan usage in commodity markets. See RMB and China’s Green Yuan Strategy.
Mapping Hypotheses to Scenarios
Each hypothesis has different weight depending on which scenario unfolds. The table below aligns our six theses with four possible futures.
| Hypothesis | Peaceful Transition | Engineered Crisis | Cold War 2.0 | Decline & Fall of the USA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense & Tech Autonomy | High – EU spending grows, steady dual-use demand | Very High – crisis budgets surge | High – entrenched rivalry sustains procurement | Critical – allies boost autonomy as U.S. commitments collapse |
| China Tech Sovereignty | High – “Good enough” Chinese chips by 2026 | High – crisis accelerates decoupling | Very High – dual blocs harden | Dominant – China sets standards as U.S. falters |
| Global Energy Transition | High – China exports globally | Medium – shocks slow rollout | High – parallel green supply chains | High – BRICS/SCO drive green trade |
| Critical Resources | High – EV boom drives demand | Very High – volatility spikes values | High – supply blocs split | Dominant – BRICS control leverage |
| Gold Hedge | Medium – gradual reallocation | Very High – crisis accelerates flows | High – Cold War hedging | Dominant – replaces Treasuries as hedge |
| RMB Strategy | Medium – early adoption | Medium – sanctions accelerate | High – gradual Belt & Road uptake | Dominant – RMB-led blocs reshape trade |
Conclusion
These core investment hypotheses provide a framework for aligning portfolios with long-term structural shifts. While each carries risks, together they build resilience across scenarios in a turbulent global order.